2026 Cycle

U.S. Senate Races

Every seat up in 2026 — including special elections — with live prediction-market odds on each race, updating around the clock alongside AFP polling frames.

Live · 2026 Senate Control

Democrats favored

R 35.5%

D 64.5%

Competitive

8 races

Toss-up frames — the races that will decide control.

Georgia

EVEN

Ossoff (D) vs. GOP nominee

97.2% Market Odds

Jon Ossoff (D)

Mike Collins (R) 2.8%

Live · Prediction market

Top GOP pickup target of the cycle. Primary field still forming.

Michigan

EVEN

Open seat (Peters retiring)

72.5% Market Odds

Abdul El-Sayed (D)

Mike Rogers (R) 27.5%

Live · Prediction market

Open-seat battleground. Both primaries contested.

North Carolina

EVEN

Open seat (Tillis retiring)

96.3% ▲ 0.8Market Odds

Roy Cooper (D)

Michael Whatley (R) 3.6%

Live · Prediction market

Perennial battleground, open seat raises stakes for both parties.

Maine

EVEN

Collins (R) vs. Democratic nominee

59.5% ▲ 1Market Odds

Troy Jackson (D)

Susan Collins (R) 40.5%

Live · Prediction market

Collins seeking re-election in a state Democrats carry federally.

New Hampshire

Open seat (Shaheen retiring)

86.5% Market Odds

Chris Pappas (D)

John E. Sununu (R) 14.5%

Live · Prediction market

Open swing-state seat. GOP recruitment will decide competitiveness.

Minnesota

Open seat (Smith retiring)

88.5% ▼ 2.5Market Odds

Peggy Flanagan (D)

Michele Tafoya (R) 11.5%

Live · Prediction market

Open seat gives GOP its best Minnesota Senate opening in years.

Ohio · Special

Husted (R) vs. Democratic nominee

61.5% ▲ 2.5Market Odds

Sherrod Brown (D)

Jon Husted (R) 38.5%

Live · Prediction market

Special election for the unexpired Vance term.

Florida · Special

Moody (R) vs. Democratic nominee

91.5% Market Odds

Ashley Moody (R)

Angie Nixon (D) 9%

Live · Prediction market

Special election for the unexpired Rubio term.

Leaning

7 races

An edge to one party, but on the board.

Texas

GOP primary → general

64.5% ▲ 4Market Odds

James Talarico (D)

Ken Paxton (R) 36.5%

Live · Prediction market

High-profile GOP primary; general leans Republican.

Iowa

Ernst seat

57.5% ▲ 1Market Odds

Ashley Hinson (R)

Josh Turek (D) 42.5%

Live · Prediction market

Leans Republican; Democrats testing recruitment.

Alaska

Sullivan (R)

72.5% ▲ 2Market Odds

Mary Peltola

Sen. Dan Sullivan 27.5% · Ann Diener 0.1%

Live · Prediction market

Ranked-choice dynamics keep the frame open.

Colorado

Hickenlooper (D)

98.1% Market Odds

John Hickenlooper (D)

Mark Baisley (R) 1.6%

Live · Prediction market

Leans Democratic statewide.

Virginia

Warner (D)

98.3% ▲ 0.8Market Odds

Mark Warner (D)

Bert Mizusawa (R) 1.8%

Live · Prediction market

Leans Democratic; GOP watching the environment.

New Mexico

Luján (D)

97.6% Market Odds

Ben Ray Luján (D)

Larry Marker (R) 1.6%

Live · Prediction market

Leans Democratic.

New Jersey

Booker (D)

97.9% ▼ 0.2Market Odds

Cory Booker (D)

Justin Murphy (R) 1.9%

Live · Prediction market

Leans Democratic; GOP gained ground in 2024-25 cycles.

Safe

20 races

Strongly favored for the incumbent party.

Alabama

Tuberville seat (open — running for Governor)

Safe RAFP Average

Safe Republican; contested primary.

Arkansas

Cotton (R)

93.2% ▼ 0.5Market Odds

Tom Cotton (R)

Hallie Shoffner (D) 7.1%

Live · Prediction market

Safe Republican.

Idaho

Risch (R)

94.6% ▲ 0.2Market Odds

Jim Risch (R)

Todd Achilles (I) 4.8% · Democrat 0.1%

Live · Prediction market

Safe Republican.

Kansas

Marshall (R)

66.5% ▼ 2Market Odds

Roger Marshall (R)

Adam Hamilton (D) 33.5%

Live · Prediction market

Safe Republican.

Kentucky

Open seat (McConnell retiring)

96.5% Market Odds

Andy Barr (R)

Charles Booker (D) 2.5%

Live · Prediction market

Safe Republican general; marquee GOP primary.

Louisiana

Cassidy (R)

93% Market Odds

Julia Letlow (R)

Jamie Davis (D) 6.5%

Live · Prediction market

Safe Republican general; primary challenge active.

Mississippi

Hyde-Smith (R)

90.5% Market Odds

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)

Scott Colom (D) 9.5%

Live · Prediction market

Safe Republican.

Montana

Daines (R)

91.5% Market Odds

Kurt Alme (R)

Independent 8.3% · Alani Bankhead (D) 0.4%

Live · Prediction market

Safe Republican.

Nebraska

Ricketts (R)

72.5% ▼ 1Market Odds

Pete Ricketts (R)

Independent 27.5% · Democrat 0.1%

Live · Prediction market

Safe Republican; independent bid watched.

Oklahoma

Mullin (R)

98.5% ▲ 0.1Market Odds

Kevin Hern (R)

N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas (D) 1.4%

Live · Prediction market

Safe Republican.

South Carolina

Graham (R)

86.5% ▼ 1Market Odds

Darline Graham Nordone (R)

Annie Andrews (D) 13.5%

Live · Prediction market

Safe Republican general; primary challenge active.

South Dakota

Rounds (R)

94.1% ▲ 3Market Odds

Mike Rounds (R)

Brian Bengs (I) 4.6% · Democrat 0.2%

Live · Prediction market

Safe Republican.

Tennessee

GOP seat

96.5% ▼ 1Market Odds

Bill Hagerty (R)

Marquita Bradshaw (D) 3.5%

Live · Prediction market

Safe Republican.

West Virginia

Capito (R)

99.1% ▲ 0.5Market Odds

Shelley Moore Capito (R)

Rachel Fetty Anderson (D) 1%

Live · Prediction market

Safe Republican.

Wyoming

Lummis (R)

97.5% Market Odds

Harriet Hageman (R)

James W. Byrd (D) 2.5%

Live · Prediction market

Safe Republican.

Delaware

Coons (D)

98.6% ▼ 0.1Market Odds

Democrat

Republican 1.5%

Live · Prediction market

Safe Democratic.

Illinois

Open seat (Durbin retiring)

98% Market Odds

Juliana Stratton (D)

Don Tracy (R) 2.2%

Live · Prediction market

Safe Democratic general; competitive Democratic primary.

Massachusetts

Markey (D)

97.9% Market Odds

Ed Markey (D)

John Deaton (R) 1.8%

Live · Prediction market

Safe Democratic; primary generational challenge possible.

Oregon

Merkley (D)

97.9% Market Odds

Jeff Merkley (D)

David Brock Smith (R) 1.9%

Live · Prediction market

Safe Democratic.

Rhode Island

Reed (D)

99.3% Market Odds

Jack Reed (D)

Raymond McKay (R) 0.8%

Live · Prediction market

Safe Democratic.

Primaries Still Active

5 races

Nomination battles we are tracking before the general.

Texas · GOP Primary

Paxton vs. Cornyn

PendingAFP Average

Marquee Republican primary of the cycle.

Kentucky · GOP Primary

Open-seat field

PendingAFP Average

Race to succeed McConnell.

Georgia · GOP Primary

Field forming

PendingAFP Average

Winner faces Ossoff in the top general of the cycle.

Michigan · Both Primaries

EVEN

Open-seat fields

PendingAFP Average

Contested primaries on both sides.

Illinois · Dem Primary

Open-seat field

PendingAFP Average

Competitive Democratic primary for the Durbin seat.

Live market odds are streaming on 34 races and refresh continuously with trading. Market odds reflect implied probabilities from prediction-market participants and do not constitute an AFP poll or forecast. Averages marked “Pending” will populate as qualifying polling becomes available. See our methodology for inclusion criteria.