2026 Cycle
U.S. Senate Races
Every seat up in 2026 — including special elections — with live prediction-market odds on each race, updating around the clock alongside AFP polling frames.
Live · 2026 Senate Control
Democrats favored
R 47.5%
D 52.5%
Competitive
8 racesToss-up frames — the races that will decide control.
Ossoff (D) vs. GOP nominee
93% ▲ 1Market Odds
Jon Ossoff (D)
Mike Collins (R) 7.8%
Live · Prediction market
Top GOP pickup target of the cycle. Primary field still forming.
Open seat (Peters retiring)
57.5% ▼ 2Market Odds
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Mike Rogers (R) 42.5%
Live · Prediction market
Open-seat battleground. Both primaries contested.
Open seat (Tillis retiring)
91.5% ▲ 0.5Market Odds
Roy Cooper (D)
Michael Whatley (R) 8.5%
Live · Prediction market
Perennial battleground, open seat raises stakes for both parties.
Collins (R) vs. Democratic nominee
69.5% Market Odds
Troy Jackson (D)
Susan Collins (R) 29.5%
Live · Prediction market
Collins seeking re-election in a state Democrats carry federally.
Open seat (Shaheen retiring)
86.5% Market Odds
Democrat
Republican 14%
Live · Prediction market
Open swing-state seat. GOP recruitment will decide competitiveness.
Open seat (Smith retiring)
91.5% ▼ 1.5Market Odds
Peggy Flanagan (D)
Michele Tafoya (R) 9.5%
Live · Prediction market
Open seat gives GOP its best Minnesota Senate opening in years.
Husted (R) vs. Democratic nominee
52.5% Market Odds
Sherrod Brown (D)
Jon Husted (R) 48.5%
Live · Prediction market
Special election for the unexpired Vance term.
Moody (R) vs. Democratic nominee
87% Market Odds
Republican
Democrat 13%
Live · Prediction market
Special election for the unexpired Rubio term.
Leaning
7 racesAn edge to one party, but on the board.
GOP primary → general
51.5% Market Odds
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R) 48.5%
Live · Prediction market
High-profile GOP primary; general leans Republican.
Ernst seat
56.5% ▼ 0.5Market Odds
Ashley Hinson (R)
Josh Turek (D) 43.5%
Live · Prediction market
Leans Republican; Democrats testing recruitment.
Sullivan (R)
51% Market Odds
Mary Peltola
Dan Sullivan 48.5% · Ann Diener 0.1%
Live · Prediction market
Ranked-choice dynamics keep the frame open.
Hickenlooper (D)
96% Market Odds
Democrat
Republican 3.5%
Live · Prediction market
Leans Democratic statewide.
Warner (D)
94% ▲ 0.5Market Odds
Democrat
Republican 5.5%
Live · Prediction market
Leans Democratic; GOP watching the environment.
Luján (D)
95.2% Market Odds
Democrat
Republican 3.5%
Live · Prediction market
Leans Democratic.
Booker (D)
95.5% Market Odds
Democrat
Republican 4.6%
Live · Prediction market
Leans Democratic; GOP gained ground in 2024-25 cycles.
Safe
20 racesStrongly favored for the incumbent party.
Tuberville seat (open — running for Governor)
Safe RAFP Average
Safe Republican; contested primary.
Cotton (R)
93.5% Market Odds
Republican
Democrat 4.6%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Risch (R)
96% ▲ 0.1Market Odds
Republican
Democrat 4.6%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Marshall (R)
80% ▲ 1.5Market Odds
Republican
Democrat 21%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Open seat (McConnell retiring)
92.3% Market Odds
Andy Barr (R)
Charles Booker (D) 5.6%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican general; marquee GOP primary.
Cassidy (R)
94% ▲ 1Market Odds
Republican
Democrat 5.5%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican general; primary challenge active.
Hyde-Smith (R)
91.5% ▼ 0.5Market Odds
Republican
Democrat 7.5%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Daines (R)
91.5% ▼ 0.5Market Odds
Republican
Independent 7.3% · Democrat 0.3%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Ricketts (R)
71.5% ▼ 0.5Market Odds
Pete Ricketts (R)
Independent 28.5% · Democrat 0.3%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican; independent bid watched.
Mullin (R)
95% Market Odds
Republican
Democrat 4.2%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Graham (R)
90.5% Market Odds
Republican
Democrat 9.5%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican general; primary challenge active.
Rounds (R)
94.2% Market Odds
Republican
Democrat 1.8%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
GOP seat
95.7% Market Odds
Republican
Democrat 2.3%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Capito (R)
95.2% ▲ 0.1Market Odds
Republican
Democrat 1.7%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Lummis (R)
96.2% Market Odds
Republican
Democrat 2.1%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Coons (D)
95.5% Market Odds
Democrat
Republican 4.5%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Democratic.
Open seat (Durbin retiring)
95% ▲ 0.2Market Odds
Juliana Stratton (D)
Don Tracy (R) 3.7%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Democratic general; competitive Democratic primary.
Markey (D)
96.6% ▲ 0.1Market Odds
Democrat
Republican 2.6%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Democratic; primary generational challenge possible.
Merkley (D)
97.1% ▲ 0.3Market Odds
Democrat
Republican 1.7%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Democratic.
Reed (D)
95.5% Market Odds
Democrat
Republican 4.1%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Democratic.
Primaries Still Active
5 racesNomination battles we are tracking before the general.
Paxton vs. Cornyn
PendingAFP Average
Marquee Republican primary of the cycle.
Open-seat field
PendingAFP Average
Race to succeed McConnell.
Field forming
PendingAFP Average
Winner faces Ossoff in the top general of the cycle.
Open-seat fields
PendingAFP Average
Contested primaries on both sides.
Open-seat field
PendingAFP Average
Competitive Democratic primary for the Durbin seat.
Live market odds are streaming on 34 races and refresh continuously with trading. Market odds reflect implied probabilities from prediction-market participants and do not constitute an AFP poll or forecast. Averages marked “Pending” will populate as qualifying polling becomes available. See our methodology for inclusion criteria.