2026 Cycle
Governor Races
The 2026 gubernatorial map — a historic number of open seats from term limits — with live prediction-market odds on each race alongside AFP polling frames.
Competitive
10 racesToss-up frames — the races that will decide control.
Open seat (Kemp term-limited)
62.5% ▲ 2.5Market Odds
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)
Rick Jackson (R) 36.5%
Live · Prediction market
Open seat in the marquee battleground state.
Lombardo (R)
64% ▲ 2Market Odds
Joe Lombardo (R)
Aaron Ford (D) 35.5%
Live · Prediction market
GOP incumbent in a purple state.
Open seat (Evers retiring)
77.5% ▲ 0.5Market Odds
David Crowley (D)
Tom Tiffany (R) 22.5%
Live · Prediction market
Open seat in a 50/50 state.
Open seat (Whitmer term-limited)
84% Market Odds
Democrat
Republican 15% · Independent 1.5%
Live · Prediction market
Open battleground seat; three-way dynamics possible.
Hobbs (D) vs. GOP nominee
87.5% Market Odds
Democrat
Republican 12.5%
Live · Prediction market
First-term Democratic incumbent in a swing state.
Shapiro (D) vs. GOP nominee
95.5% Market Odds
Democrat
Republican 5.5%
Live · Prediction market
Popular incumbent, but PA stays on the board.
Open seat (Kelly term-limited)
65% ▲ 7Market Odds
Republican
Democrat 34.5%
Live · Prediction market
Open seat Democrats currently hold in a red state.
Open seat (Mills term-limited)
95% Market Odds
Democrat
Republican 5.2%
Live · Prediction market
Open seat, competitive fields on both sides.
Open seat (Lujan Grisham term-limited)
90.5% Market Odds
Democrat
Republican 10%
Live · Prediction market
Open seat; GOP targets it in a good environment.
Walz (DFL)
93.5% ▲ 1Market Odds
Amy Klobuchar (D)
Lisa Demuth (R) 5.2%
Live · Prediction market
Incumbent seeking a third term.
Leaning
10 racesAn edge to one party, but on the board.
Open seat (DeSantis term-limited)
83% Market Odds
Republican
Democrat 17%
Live · Prediction market
High-profile GOP primary; general leans Republican.
Open seat (DeWine term-limited)
52.5% ▼ 1Market Odds
Amy Acton (D)
Vivek Ramaswamy (R) 44%
Live · Prediction market
Ramaswamy leads GOP field; general leans Republican.
Abbott (R)
81.8% ▼ 1.3Market Odds
Greg Abbott (R)
Gina Hinojosa (D) 17%
Live · Prediction market
Incumbent seeking a fourth term.
Open seat (Reynolds retiring)
71.5% ▼ 0.5Market Odds
Rob Sand (D)
Zach Lahn (R) 28.5%
Live · Prediction market
Open seat leans Republican.
Ayotte (R)
PendingAFP Average
First-term incumbent.
Scott (R)
86.5% ▼ 3Market Odds
Republican
Democrat 12.5%
Live · Prediction market
Popular GOP incumbent in a blue state.
Open seat (Polis term-limited)
93.8% Market Odds
Democrat
Republican 5%
Live · Prediction market
Open seat leans Democratic.
Kotek (D)
86% Market Odds
Democrat
Republican 14.5%
Live · Prediction market
Leans Democratic.
Hochul (D)
93.5% Market Odds
Democrat
Republican 6%
Live · Prediction market
GOP aims to repeat 2022's close margin.
Open seat (Newsom term-limited)
92.9% ▲ 0.5Market Odds
Xavier Becerra
Steve Hilton 6.7% · Chad Bianco 0.2%
Live · Prediction market
Open seat; top-two primary shapes the field.
Safe
15 racesStrongly favored for the incumbent party.
Open seat (Ivey term-limited) — Tuberville running
91.6% Market Odds
Republican
Democrat 8.5%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Sanders (R)
95.7% ▼ 0.1Market Odds
Republican
Democrat 2.9%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Little (R)
94.8% Market Odds
Republican
Democrat 2.4%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Pillen (R)
84.5% Market Odds
Republican
Democrat 15.5%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Open seat (Stitt term-limited)
93.5% Market Odds
Republican
Democrat 5%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican; contested primary.
Open seat (McMaster term-limited)
91.5% Market Odds
Republican
Democrat 8.6%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican; contested primary.
Rhoden (R)
94.9% ▲ 0.1Market Odds
Republican
Democrat 5.2%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Open seat (Lee term-limited)
95.7% Market Odds
Republican
Democrat 3.4%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican; contested primary.
Open seat (Gordon term-limited)
95.3% Market Odds
Republican
Democrat 3.1%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Lamont (D)
96% ▲ 0.1Market Odds
Democrat
Republican 2.4%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Democratic.
Green (D)
96% Market Odds
Democrat
Republican 2.2%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Democratic.
Pritzker (D)
95.5% Market Odds
Democrat
Republican 5.5%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Democratic.
Moore (D)
95.6% Market Odds
Democrat
Republican 3.6%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Democratic.
Healey (D)
95.4% ▲ 0.2Market Odds
Democrat
Republican 4.5%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Democratic.
McKee (D)
91.5% Market Odds
Democrat
Republican 3.9% · Independent 2.4%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Democratic; primary contested.
Primaries Still Active
4 racesNomination battles we are tracking before the general.
Donalds vs. field
PendingAFP Average
Race to succeed DeSantis.
Open-seat fields
PendingAFP Average
Both parties' fields still forming.
Open-seat fields
PendingAFP Average
Contested primaries on both sides.
Open-seat fields
PendingAFP Average
Open seat draws deep fields.
Live market odds are streaming on 34 races and refresh continuously with trading. Market odds reflect implied probabilities from prediction-market participants and do not constitute an AFP poll or forecast. Averages marked “Pending” will populate as qualifying polling becomes available. See our methodology for inclusion criteria.