2026 Cycle
Governor Races
The 2026 gubernatorial map — a historic number of open seats from term limits — with live prediction-market odds on each race alongside AFP polling frames.
Competitive
10 racesToss-up frames — the races that will decide control.
Open seat (Kemp term-limited)
52.5% ▲ 1Market Odds
Rick Jackson (R)
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 46%
Live · Prediction market
Open seat in the marquee battleground state.
Lombardo (R)
54% ▲ 4.5Market Odds
Aaron Ford (D)
Joe Lombardo (R) 46.5%
Live · Prediction market
GOP incumbent in a purple state.
Open seat (Evers retiring)
81.5% Market Odds
David Crowley (D)
Tom Tiffany (R) 18.5%
Live · Prediction market
Open seat in a 50/50 state.
Open seat (Whitmer term-limited)
94.9% ▲ 1.4Market Odds
Jocelyn Benson (D)
John James (R) 5.5% · Independent 0.1%
Live · Prediction market
Open battleground seat; three-way dynamics possible.
Hobbs (D) vs. GOP nominee
88.5% Market Odds
Katie Hobbs (D)
Andy Biggs (R) 10.5%
Live · Prediction market
First-term Democratic incumbent in a swing state.
Shapiro (D) vs. GOP nominee
96.9% ▲ 0.1Market Odds
Josh Shapiro (D)
Stacy Garrity (R) 2.6%
Live · Prediction market
Popular incumbent, but PA stays on the board.
Open seat (Kelly term-limited)
73.5% Market Odds
Ty Masterson (R)
Cindy Holscher (D) 27.5%
Live · Prediction market
Open seat Democrats currently hold in a red state.
Open seat (Mills term-limited)
95.3% ▲ 0.1Market Odds
Hannah Pingree (D)
Robert Charles (R) 4.7%
Live · Prediction market
Open seat, competitive fields on both sides.
Open seat (Lujan Grisham term-limited)
95.5% Market Odds
Deb Haaland (D)
Gregg Hull (R) 4.5%
Live · Prediction market
Open seat; GOP targets it in a good environment.
Walz (DFL)
95.5% Market Odds
Amy Klobuchar (D)
Lisa Demuth (R) 4.6%
Live · Prediction market
Incumbent seeking a third term.
Leaning
10 racesAn edge to one party, but on the board.
Open seat (DeSantis term-limited)
77.5% Market Odds
Byron Donalds (R)
David Jolly (D) 22.5%
Live · Prediction market
High-profile GOP primary; general leans Republican.
Open seat (DeWine term-limited)
66.5% ▲ 5Market Odds
Amy Acton (D)
Vivek Ramaswamy (R) 33.5%
Live · Prediction market
Ramaswamy leads GOP field; general leans Republican.
Abbott (R)
74.6% ▼ 8Market Odds
Greg Abbott (R)
Gina Hinojosa (D) 24.5%
Live · Prediction market
Incumbent seeking a fourth term.
Open seat (Reynolds retiring)
84.5% Market Odds
Rob Sand (D)
Zach Lahn (R) 14.5%
Live · Prediction market
Open seat leans Republican.
Ayotte (R)
PendingAFP Average
First-term incumbent.
Scott (R)
78.5% ▲ 0.5Market Odds
Phil Scott (R)
Amanda Janoo (D) 21.1%
Live · Prediction market
Popular GOP incumbent in a blue state.
Open seat (Polis term-limited)
96.5% Market Odds
Phil Weiser (D)
Victor Marx (R) 1.8%
Live · Prediction market
Open seat leans Democratic.
Kotek (D)
74.5% ▲ 0.5Market Odds
Tina Kotek (D)
Christine Drazan (R) 25.5%
Live · Prediction market
Leans Democratic.
Hochul (D)
95% ▼ 0.5Market Odds
Kathy Hochul (D)
Bruce Blakeman (R) 4%
Live · Prediction market
GOP aims to repeat 2022's close margin.
Open seat (Newsom term-limited)
96.1% ▲ 0.2Market Odds
Xavier Becerra
Steve Hilton 4.1% · Rick Caruso 0.1%
Live · Prediction market
Open seat; top-two primary shapes the field.
Safe
15 racesStrongly favored for the incumbent party.
Open seat (Ivey term-limited) — Tuberville running
92.4% ▲ 0.1Market Odds
Tommy Tuberville (R)
Doug Jones (D) 6.9%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Sanders (R)
96.9% ▲ 0.1Market Odds
Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R)
Fredrick Love (D) 2.6%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Little (R)
98.5% Market Odds
Brad Little (R)
Terri Pickens (D) 2.1%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Pillen (R)
90.5% Market Odds
Jim Pillen (R)
Lynne Walz (D) 9%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Open seat (Stitt term-limited)
92.5% Market Odds
Mike Mazzei (R)
Cyndi Munson (D) 7.5%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican; contested primary.
Open seat (McMaster term-limited)
94.5% Market Odds
Alan Wilson (R)
Jermaine Johnson (D) 4.7%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican; contested primary.
Rhoden (R)
96.9% ▲ 0.1Market Odds
Larry Rhoden (R)
Dan Ahlers (D) 2.7%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Open seat (Lee term-limited)
94.5% ▼ 0.2Market Odds
Marsha Blackburn (R)
Jerri Green (D) 5.6%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican; contested primary.
Open seat (Gordon term-limited)
97% ▲ 0.2Market Odds
Eric Barlow (R)
Kenneth Casner (D) 2.7%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Republican.
Lamont (D)
96.6% Market Odds
Ned Lamont (D)
Ryan Fazio (R) 2.5%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Democratic.
Green (D)
98.3% ▲ 0.9Market Odds
Josh Green (D)
Gary Cordery (R) 1.3%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Democratic.
Pritzker (D)
97.2% ▼ 0.2Market Odds
JB Pritzker (D)
Darren Bailey (R) 2.3%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Democratic.
Moore (D)
96.6% Market Odds
Wes Moore (D)
Dan Cox (R) 1.5%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Democratic.
Healey (D)
96.2% Market Odds
Maura Healey (D)
Michael Minogue (R) 3.4%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Democratic.
McKee (D)
97.2% ▲ 0.4Market Odds
Helena Foulkes (D)
Republican 2.1% · Independent 0.9%
Live · Prediction market
Safe Democratic; primary contested.
Primaries Still Active
4 racesNomination battles we are tracking before the general.
Donalds vs. field
PendingAFP Average
Race to succeed DeSantis.
Open-seat fields
PendingAFP Average
Both parties' fields still forming.
Open-seat fields
PendingAFP Average
Contested primaries on both sides.
Open-seat fields
PendingAFP Average
Open seat draws deep fields.
Live market odds are streaming on 34 races and refresh continuously with trading. Market odds reflect implied probabilities from prediction-market participants and do not constitute an AFP poll or forecast. Averages marked “Pending” will populate as qualifying polling becomes available. See our methodology for inclusion criteria.