Data sources

Every source behind the number

We combine live prediction-market prices, public polls and, as they come online, news and attention signals and our own verified member panel into one Precision Combined forecast. This is the full list: what each source gives us, how we reach it, its licence, and which step of the Precision Funnel™ it feeds. Sources we evaluated and chose not to use are listed too.

28 live2 built, needs key16 planned18 evaluated5 blocked

Live sources are read and stored on every refresh. Building means the connection is being wired now. Planned sources are chosen but not yet connected, and nothing from them reaches a published number. Evaluated sources were reviewed and are not in use; blocked ones have terms or licences that rule out our use. Every weight the Precision Funnel™ gives a source is printed on each race page. How the weights work →

Prediction markets

Set per race by the Precision Funnel™

Live prices where real money is at stake. Weighted by dollars traded and spread; thin markets are left out.

Kalshi
Live
CFTC-regulated exchange
Last trade, bid, ask and volume for every Senate, governor, House and chamber-control contract
Access
Free, no key
Licence
Kalshi API terms
Feeds
Step 2: markets
Updates
Real time; stored on every refresh
On the site
Race Center, Markets page, Precision Combined
Last read
Oct 13, 6:00 AM ET
Polymarket
Live
On-chain market with a U.S. regulated arm
Prices and reported USD volume per race market (Gamma API)
Access
Free, no key
Licence
Polymarket terms of use
Feeds
Step 2: markets
Updates
Real time; stored on every refresh
On the site
Race Center, Markets page, Precision Combined
Last read
Oct 13, 6:00 AM ET
PredictIt
Live
Academic-licensed political market
Last trade and close for every PredictIt political contract; no volume
Access
Free, no key
Licence
PredictIt data terms: non-commercial use only
Feeds
Step 2: markets
Updates
About every minute; stored on every refresh
On the site
Race Center, Markets page, Precision Combined (half trust)
Last read
Oct 13, 6:00 AM ET
Manifold
Live
Play-money market
Election-outcome questions, shown for reference
Access
Free, no key
Licence
Manifold API terms
Feeds
Context only
Updates
Real time; read when the Markets page renders
On the site
Markets page
FanDuel Predicts
Evaluated
CFTC event contracts (sportsbook-affiliated)
Event-contract prices as political coverage grows
Access
No API
Licence
Platform terms
Feeds
Step 2: markets
Updates
Real time on the platform
Interactive Brokers ForecastEx
Evaluated
CFTC-regulated event contracts
Select political and economic contracts
Access
Paid
Licence
IBKR market-data terms
Feeds
Step 2: markets
Updates
Real time
Limitless and other crypto venues
Evaluated
Decentralized markets
Niche contracts, some on U.S. elections
Access
Free, no key
Licence
Varies
Feeds
Step 2: markets
Updates
Real time
Market aggregators (Prediction Hunt, PredictionMarketAPI)
Evaluated
Cross-venue data aggregators
Matched prices and volume across Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and others
Access
Free tier + paid
Licence
Vendor terms
Feeds
Step 2: markets
Updates
Near real time
Offshore sportsbooks
Blocked
Traditional or offshore betting sites
Odds on high-profile U.S. races
Access
Paid
Licence
Varies; legal status differs by jurisdiction
Feeds
Step 2: markets
Updates
Real time

Public polls and surveys

Set per race by the Precision Funnel™

National, state and local pollsters, vetted for sample size, recency, voter screen and sponsor.

VoteHub
Live
Public poll database
Every public Senate, governor and generic-ballot poll with pollster, dates, sample, population and sponsor
Access
Free, no key
Licence
CC BY 4.0
Feeds
Steps 1 and 3: polls
Updates
As polls are released; stored on every refresh
On the site
Latest Polls, Poll Averages, Race Center, Precision Combined
Last read
Oct 13, 6:00 AM ET
Pew Research Center
Live
Non-partisan research
National issues and attitudes; datasets free with an account
Access
Public releases
Licence
Results are facts; reports are the pollster's copyright
Feeds
Steps 1 and 3: polls
Updates
When the pollster releases
On the site
Through VoteHub
Rasmussen Reports
Live
Commercial pollster
Frequent national and some state tracking
Access
Public releases
Licence
Results are facts; reports are the pollster's copyright
Feeds
Steps 1 and 3: polls
Updates
When the pollster releases
On the site
Through VoteHub
Quinnipiac University
Live
Academic pollster
National and swing-state polls
Access
Public releases
Licence
Results are facts; reports are the pollster's copyright
Feeds
Steps 1 and 3: polls
Updates
When the pollster releases
On the site
Through VoteHub
YouGov
Live
Online panel
Large national and state samples, often with media partners
Access
Public releases
Licence
Results are facts; reports are the pollster's copyright
Feeds
Steps 1 and 3: polls
Updates
When the pollster releases
On the site
Through VoteHub
Emerson College
Live
Academic pollster
National and swing-state polls, fast turnaround
Access
Public releases
Licence
Results are facts; reports are the pollster's copyright
Feeds
Steps 1 and 3: polls
Updates
When the pollster releases
On the site
Through VoteHub
Siena College / NYT-Siena
Live
Academic and media
National and key-state polls
Access
Public releases
Licence
Results are facts; reports are the pollster's copyright
Feeds
Steps 1 and 3: polls
Updates
When the pollster releases
On the site
Through VoteHub
Marist College / NPR-PBS
Live
Academic and media
Long-running national series
Access
Public releases
Licence
Results are facts; reports are the pollster's copyright
Feeds
Steps 1 and 3: polls
Updates
When the pollster releases
On the site
Through VoteHub
Suffolk University / USA Today
Live
Academic and media
National and selected states
Access
Public releases
Licence
Results are facts; reports are the pollster's copyright
Feeds
Steps 1 and 3: polls
Updates
When the pollster releases
On the site
Through VoteHub
Ipsos / Reuters-Ipsos
Live
Commercial pollster
National tracking
Access
Public releases
Licence
Results are facts; reports are the pollster's copyright
Feeds
Steps 1 and 3: polls
Updates
When the pollster releases
On the site
Through VoteHub
Morning Consult
Live
Online panel
Large daily national tracking and issues
Access
Public releases
Licence
Results are facts; reports are the pollster's copyright
Feeds
Steps 1 and 3: polls
Updates
When the pollster releases
On the site
Through VoteHub
Fox News Poll
Live
Media-sponsored
National and state polls
Access
Public releases
Licence
Results are facts; reports are the pollster's copyright
Feeds
Steps 1 and 3: polls
Updates
When the pollster releases
On the site
Through VoteHub
CNN / SSRS
Live
Media-sponsored
National polls
Access
Public releases
Licence
Results are facts; reports are the pollster's copyright
Feeds
Steps 1 and 3: polls
Updates
When the pollster releases
On the site
Through VoteHub
Gallup
Live
Commercial, historic
National attitudes and approval; deeper data is paid
Access
Public releases
Licence
Results are facts; reports are the pollster's copyright
Feeds
Steps 1 and 3: polls
Updates
When the pollster releases
On the site
Through VoteHub
Monmouth University
Live
Academic pollster
National polls
Access
Public releases
Licence
Results are facts; reports are the pollster's copyright
Feeds
Steps 1 and 3: polls
Updates
When the pollster releases
On the site
Through VoteHub
Marquette Law School
Live
Academic pollster
National and Wisconsin
Access
Public releases
Licence
Results are facts; reports are the pollster's copyright
Feeds
Steps 1 and 3: polls
Updates
When the pollster releases
On the site
Through VoteHub
Public Policy Polling
Live
Commercial pollster
National and state
Access
Public releases
Licence
Results are facts; reports are the pollster's copyright
Feeds
Steps 1 and 3: polls
Updates
When the pollster releases
On the site
Through VoteHub
Trafalgar Group
Live
Commercial pollster
National and state
Access
Public releases
Licence
Results are facts; reports are the pollster's copyright
Feeds
Steps 1 and 3: polls
Updates
When the pollster releases
On the site
Through VoteHub
Cygnal
Live
Commercial pollster
State and federal
Access
Public releases
Licence
Results are facts; reports are the pollster's copyright
Feeds
Steps 1 and 3: polls
Updates
When the pollster releases
On the site
Through VoteHub
AtlasIntel
Live
Online pollster
National and state
Access
Public releases
Licence
Results are facts; reports are the pollster's copyright
Feeds
Steps 1 and 3: polls
Updates
When the pollster releases
On the site
Through VoteHub
Local and state newspapers
Planned
Media-sponsored polls
State, congressional and local race polls commissioned by papers
Access
Public releases
Licence
Results are facts; articles are copyrighted
Feeds
Steps 1 and 3: polls
Updates
When published
Local radio and TV stations
Planned
Media-sponsored polls
Station-commissioned tracking in state and local races
Access
Public releases
Licence
Results are facts
Feeds
Steps 1 and 3: polls
Updates
When published
State university polling centers
Planned
Academic pollsters (UNH, Roanoke and others)
State and local polls, often the only polls in a race
Access
Public releases
Licence
Results are facts
Feeds
Steps 1 and 3: polls
Updates
When published
RealClearPolitics
Blocked
Poll aggregator
Widely quoted poll averages
Access
No API
Licence
RCP terms bar scraping
Feeds
Steps 1 and 3: polls
Updates
Daily
On the site
Links on race pages; headlines in the Election Wire

Precision verified member panel

Starts at the trust of outside polls

Our own surveys of identity-verified members. Not fielded yet; planned for launch in December 2026.

Precision verified member panel
Planned
Identity-verified, token-incentivized members
Our own ballot tests and issue questions, weighted to the voter file
Access
Precision internal
Licence
Precision owned
Feeds
Step 5: Precision panel
Updates
Per survey wave
National voter file
Planned
Commercial voter file (200+ attributes)
Party, sex, age, education, income and more, for weighting the panel and targeting outreach
Access
Paid
Licence
Vendor licence; state rules limit political use
Feeds
Step 5: Precision panel
Updates
Monthly to quarterly
Identity verification provider
Planned
Commercial ID check
Confirms each member is a real, unique person
Access
Paid
Licence
Vendor contract
Feeds
Step 5: Precision panel
Updates
Per sign-up

News volume and tone

Part of the attention bucket, 0 to 15%

How much the news covers each candidate and how positive or negative that coverage is.

GDELT DOC 2.0
Live
Global news monitor
Daily article counts and average tone (about -100 to +100) for each candidate's name
Access
Free, no key
Licence
Open for academic, commercial or government use with citation of the GDELT Project
Feeds
Step 4: attention
Updates
Every 15 minutes; we store daily totals
On the site
Race pages: attention panel
Last read
Oct 12, 9:14 PM ET
Political news RSS (White House, RealClearPolitics, CNN, The Hill, Politico)
Live
Headline feeds
Latest political headlines with links
Access
Free, no key
Licence
Each outlet's feed terms; headlines with links only
Feeds
Context only
Updates
Continuous; read every 10 minutes
On the site
Election Wire on the home page
GDELT GCAM emotions
Planned
Content analysis measures
Thousands of emotion and theme scores per article (anxiety, positivity and more)
Access
Free, no key
Licence
Same as GDELT
Feeds
Step 4: attention
Updates
Every 15 minutes
Media Cloud
Planned
Open news archive
Story counts over time across thousands of U.S. outlets, by collection
Access
Free with key
Licence
Research-oriented terms
Feeds
Step 4: attention
Updates
Daily
Comment sentiment tools
Planned
Lexicon or model sentiment on public comments
Reaction tone on public comment threads, bots filtered
Access
Free, no key
Licence
Depends on where the comments come from
Feeds
Step 4: attention
Updates
Varies
NewsAPI.org
Evaluated
Headline search API
Headlines and article counts by keyword
Access
Paid
Licence
NewsAPI terms
Feeds
Step 4: attention
Updates
Real time on paid plans
Google News RSS
Evaluated
Headline feed
Recent headlines by keyword
Access
Free, no key
Licence
Google terms; headlines with links only
Feeds
Context only
Updates
Continuous
Bing News Search API
Blocked
Headline search
Headline search
Access
No API
Licence
n/a
Feeds
Step 4: attention
Updates
n/a

Search and web attention

Part of the attention bucket, 0 to 15%

Wikipedia pageviews, search interest and estimated site traffic: who people are looking up.

Wikipedia Pageviews
Live
Attention proxy
Daily human pageviews of each candidate's Wikipedia article
Access
Free, no key
Licence
Pageview data is public domain (CC0)
Feeds
Step 4: attention
Updates
Daily, about a day behind
On the site
Race pages: attention panel
Last read
Oct 13, 6:02 AM ET
TrendsAPI.ai
Planned
Unified trend API
Normalized 0-100 interest for Google Search, TikTok hashtags, Amazon and 30+ trend sources in one schema
Access
Free tier + paid
Licence
Vendor terms; redistribution needs Enterprise
Feeds
Step 4: attention
Updates
Real time on Pro
Google Trends API (official alpha)
Planned
Search interest
Official, consistently scaled search interest
Access
Free with key
Licence
Google API terms
Feeds
Step 4: attention
Updates
Daily
SerpApi (Google Trends)
Planned
Search-results API
Google Trends interest over time, related and rising queries, by state
Access
Free tier + paid
Licence
Vendor terms
Feeds
Step 4: attention
Updates
On request
DataForSEO
Evaluated
Search-data API
Google Trends and keyword volume
Access
Paid
Licence
Vendor terms
Feeds
Step 4: attention
Updates
On request
Apify Google Trends actors
Evaluated
Hosted scrapers
Google Trends series
Access
Free tier + paid
Licence
Scraper; Google terms risk
Feeds
Step 4: attention
Updates
On request
Glimpse
Evaluated
Trends with absolute volume
Google Trends with estimated absolute search volume
Access
Paid
Licence
Vendor terms
Feeds
Step 4: attention
Updates
Daily
pytrends
Evaluated
Unofficial Python library
Google Trends series
Access
Free, no key
Licence
Open source; unofficial use of Google endpoints
Feeds
Step 4: attention
Updates
On request
Similarweb / Semrush traffic estimates
Evaluated
Estimated site visits
Modeled visits, channels and geography for candidate websites
Access
Paid
Licence
Vendor terms
Feeds
Step 4: attention
Updates
Monthly (daily on top tiers)

Other measurable signals

Context, not blended

Fundraising, endorsements, early-vote counts and headlines. Context beside the number unless a race needs them.

OpenFEC
Live
Federal Election Commission API
Candidate and committee fundraising totals and cash on hand
Access
Free with key
Licence
Public data. Individual contributor names may not be used for commercial purposes (52 U.S.C. 30111(a)(4)); totals are fine.
Feeds
Context only
Updates
As filings post (monthly or quarterly)
On the site
Senate race cards
Early and absentee vote counts
Planned
State election offices and trackers
Ballots requested and returned by party and age
Access
Public releases
Licence
Public records
Feeds
Context only
Updates
Daily during early voting
Endorsement counts
Evaluated
Editorial tracking
Endorsements by officials, papers and groups
Access
No API
Licence
Facts
Feeds
Context only
Updates
As announced

AI and processing services

Never weighted

Language models we use to draft notes and check question wording. They never set a number.

xAI Grok
Built, needs key
Language model
Drafts race notes for editor review
Access
Paid
Licence
xAI terms
Feeds
Processing only
Updates
Daily cron
Anthropic Claude
Built, needs key
Language model
Reviews survey question wording for bias
Access
Paid
Licence
Anthropic commercial terms
Feeds
Processing only
Updates
On request

List checked October 12, 2026. Licence notes summarize each provider's published terms and are not legal advice. Spot something wrong? Tell us.