Alaska Senate 2026Toss-up
Mary Peltola (D) vs. Sullivan (R)
Precision Combined forecast
65%
Mary Peltola (D) to win Alaska's Senate seat
- Mary Peltola (D)
- 64.8% · −184
- Sullivan (R)
- 35.0% · +186
- Sources used
- 4 of 5
- Market money behind it
- $2.5M
As of Oct 13, 6:02 AM ET · refreshes about every 30 minutes
Kalshi
34% weight- Democratic party75¢ ▲1
- Republican party27¢
$1.3M traded, 2¢ spread
Polymarket
34% weight- Mary Peltola73.5% ▲1
- Sen. Dan Sullivan26.5% ▼2
- David Leslie0.1%
- Ann Diener0.1%
$1.3M traded, 1¢ spread
PredictIt
9% weight- Democratic72¢ ▼1
- Republican31¢
- Independent1¢
PredictIt publishes no volume, 2¢ spread
Public polls
23% weightR +1.8
Dan Sullivan 48.4% · Mary Peltola 46.6%
2 pollsters · latest ended Sep 30, 2026
2 pollsters, latest ended Sep 30
Precision member poll
not usedNot fielded yet. Joins this number when the Precision member panel launches.
RealClearPolitics
for comparisonRCP doesn’t license its polling averages, so we link to them instead of copying the number.
Compare on RealClearPolling ↗How the Precision Funnel™ weighed this race
Market money behind the number: $2.5M
- 34%Polymarket$1.3M traded, 1¢ spread
- 34%Kalshi$1.3M traded, 2¢ spread
- 23%Public polls2 pollsters, latest ended Sep 30
- 9%PredictItPredictIt publishes no volume, 2¢ spread
- —Precision member pollNot fielded yet. Joins this number when the Precision member panel launches.
- —Attention: news volume, news tone, Wikipedia pageviewsBeing measured. Counts 5% to 15% only when two independent sources have the volume and agree; otherwise 0%.
Weight = trust × evidence for this race, scaled to 100% across the sources used. The rule ↓
Recent public polls
Peltola 47.2 · Sullivan 47.8
Sep 28 – Sep 30, 2026 · 758 LV
Peltola 46 · Sullivan 49
Sep 14 – Sep 17, 2026 · 799 LV
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research
Peltola 53 · Sullivan 47
Sep 8 – Sep 11, 2026 · 800 LV
Peltola 50.6 · Sullivan 49.4
Aug 20 – Aug 23, 2026 · 1495 LV
Peltola 50.8 · Sullivan 49.2
Aug 2 – Aug 5, 2026 · 1371 LV
The New York Times/Siena University
Peltola 45 · Sullivan 47
Jun 15 – Jun 29, 2026 · 593 LV
How the Precision Funnel™ builds the Precision Combined number
Everything available on a race goes into the top of the funnel. No source has a fixed percentage: each one’s weight comes from how much evidence it carries for this race, by the published rule on the right.
- Public polls. Every public poll of the race, national, state or local, is vetted before it counts: how many people it reached, how recent it is, whether it screened for likely voters, and whether a party or campaign paid for it. Campaign internal polls are left out.
- Prediction markets, priced by money at risk. For each market we add up the dollars traded (contracts times price). A market with under $10k traded, a spread wider than 10¢, or a 15-point jump on under $25k is left out, because one buyer can set that price.
- Local and regional sources. Newspaper, radio and university polls get the same vetting as step 1. Today they arrive through the public poll feed; we are adding the local sources national feeds miss. In races national pollsters skip, such as state cabinet offices, they may be most of what exists.
- Attention and momentum. News volume and tone (GDELT) and Wikipedia pageviews for the two leading candidates, this week against the three weeks before. Attention is not votes, so it counts only through a gate: two independent sources with enough volume, all moving the same way. Then it carries 5% to 15% of the number; otherwise 0%, shown beside the number. Search interest and social platforms join as they are wired.
- our own member poll. Our panel, weighted to the voter file on party, age, sex, education, income and region. It starts with the same trust as outside polls and earns more only through a scored track record.Not live yet
- The number. Market prices are scaled to add to 100%, a poll lead becomes a win chance with a bell curve 6 points wide, and the sources are averaged with their weights. Every race page prints the weights it got and why.
Full methodology →Why blend? Read the research →How we’ll be scored →
The weighting rule
Weight = trust × evidence, then scaled so the sources used add to 100%.
| Source | Trust | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi, Polymarket | 1 | Dollars traded ÷ (dollars traded + $50k). $50k counts half, $1M about 95%. |
| PredictIt | ½ | Fixed at ½, since PredictIt publishes no volume and caps each contract at $850. |
| Public polls | 1 | Grows with each vetted poll: full credit at 600 respondents, half credit every 21 days of age, less for registered voters or all adults, half for a partisan sponsor. |
| Precision member poll | 1 | Effective sample ÷ 800 (max 1) × share of demographic groups that match the voter file. Left out under 200 respondents. |
So a Senate race with deep markets and many polls lands near an even split, while a race no market lists and only one local paper polled leans almost entirely on the polls that exist. The constants above are the same for every race; changing one is a new method version, dated and logged. Trust values will be refit on our own scored history and the change published. RealClearPolitics is linked for comparison but not used: RCP has no public data feed and its terms don’t allow republishing its averages. Market prices reflect traders’ money, not a poll of voters. PredictIt data is shown under its non-commercial license. The Funnel never uses a number we did not measure or a source we cannot name.